Brexit - a personal view

Is Brexit bound to disappoint?

In the summer of 2016, the UK voted by a narrow margin to leave the EU. The reasons why people voted the way they did are many and varied, and were often re-enforced by strongly felt beliefs and pent up frustrations. It may have been about levels of immigration, sovereignty, austerity, globalisation, red tape, refugee crisis, social and financial inequalities, the banking crisis of 2008, zero hours contracts, house prices, social housing, £350M for the NHS, being left behind, taking back control or even the shape of bananas.

Whatever the reason, my biggest worry is that not one of these issues will be fixed by simply leaving the EU. Just look at immigration - the number one issue for Theresa May's government - not only is more than half of the immigration last year from outside the EU and directly in the control of the UK government, but also the UK has never implemented the existing controls on movement inside the EU. EU citizens are only allowed to stay for 3 months to look for work, and cannot bring their dependant with them unless they have the means to support them and adequate health insurance. Why doesn't the government use the existing rules to reduce immigration?

The answer is that the UK government wants increased immigration to boost the work force. One inconvenient truth is that with an aging population and a pension scheme that is paid for by the current workers (not as many believe from your National insurance that you have paid all your working life) the country cannot afford to pay the pension, if we do not have more new young working age immigrants.

And let's not confuse immigration with the refugee crisis. We are bound to take refugees by our United Nations obligations, so the EU can only help us in dealing with the human tragedy that results from our wars in Iraq and Syria.

When this all results in leaving the EU and immigration doesn't fall - what happens then? Who will we blame next once it isn't the fault of 'them' - the EU?

I would challenge "leave" voters to consider what they expect Brexit to deliver, and how they would measure its success.

I look forward to Theresa May delivering a good deal for Britain in the divorce negotiations after Article 50 is triggered. However since she was unable even to persuade the EU representatives to begin talking without being forced into afixed two year timescale with a rapidly approaching cliff edge, I hold little hope that we hold all the cards as we might be asked to believe…